9 Comments
Jul 18Liked by Dave Heatley

Thank you for an informative read.

But I can’t find any evidence that the government has done any research for easing the housing situation so Ministers are just turning their various “I think” brain farts into policy.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks for leaving a comment Bill.

NZ's housing problems have built up over decades, and under governments of all flavours.

There is, however, a substantial research base on the causes of these problems and recommendations for government actions to improve the situation.

Governments have contributed to this research. See, for example, these reports from the Productivity Commission:

* https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2024-05/pc-inq-ha-final-report-v5.pdf

* https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2024-05/pc-inq-ulh-using-land-for-housing-final-report-v2.pdf

* https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2024-05/pc-inq-bup-final-report.pdf

Whether the housing policies adopted by past and current Ministers was fully informed by this research base is, of course, a separate question.

Expand full comment
Jul 19Liked by Dave Heatley

Thanks for those links. I am finding myself woefully ill-informed for the rate and breadth of change that is occurring and need to catch up.

Expand full comment
Jul 19Liked by Dave Heatley

Your comment is a post worth exploring, Bill.

Expand full comment
Jul 15·edited Jul 15Liked by Dave Heatley

We have been watching a modular housing project in Northcote fail - while half a dozen tilt-slab apartment blocks have been built, finished and inhabited, the stacked modular 'containers' have stalled for so many months it seems like years. A group of workmen who might have been sent by the Asian manufacturer, is now patching, sealing, plastic wrapping and clambering over the structures with cranes and all get-out. Good on the council for catching the issues. The more successful tilt-slabs were themselves innovative, two or three on stabilised foundations of pine poles, the concrete was patterned and stained to look like timber, sometimes brick facaded with tukutuku patterns, all units seem to be street facing, the ones I have seen are no more than two off a foyer, trees abound, and they are priced at what goes for 'cheap' these days - many Kainga Ora, some privately owned and some private rentals. Either build the modules here, like classier school classes, or don't go this route. Come and see, imported modules in the shipping container style have been a disaster.

Expand full comment
Jul 19Liked by Dave Heatley

"This is good news," writes Sweet, without a hint of irony.

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by Dave Heatley

Andrew Sweet - you are absolutely right - whether they are fabricated here or off shore doesn’t really matter. NZ has quite good capability with LVL & CLT lumber so could get into prefab promptly. However the banks have been reluctant to lend on a building that isn’t on site and the central & local govt have been dragging the chain since the Key Govt. Hopefully Chris Bishop will have the determination to make it happen cost effectively in the near term

Expand full comment

Wouldn't we be better off encouraging more modular house construction here in New Zealand instead of importing flat packs? Thinking jobs, value add to our plantation timber, trade balance, increased construction productivity.

Incidentally has anyone asked MBIE or BRANZ about this anecdote that one cannot get a building consent for imported modular houses.

Expand full comment
author

I think it’s often tempting to want to freeze the economy in its current state Andrew, to protect the firms and jobs we have. But given that NZ is always going to need to import a substantial proportion of the goods we use, I think a better question to think about is what jobs we want as a country.

My answer to that is pretty clear; we are all better off if NZ’s firms and workers focus in the areas where we are more productive, leaving us to import the goods that we are less efficient at making. Importantly, that calculus is constantly shifting, as technologies and workforces change.

Rather than trying to ‘stem the tide’ when changes occur, I think we need to support any workers that are affected, and otherwise embrace the benefit that cheaper imports offer. To be clear though, I would expect NZ to continue to have a significant construction section for the foreseeable future. I can’t see imported dwellings completely replacing domestic construction – modular or otherwise – any time soon.

Expand full comment