Given the attention that Sweden received in the early stages of the pandemic, mostly in the form of criticism of its light-handed approach and predictions of a very high covid-19 death rate, your review usefully audits those predictions. A more detailed analysis would involve cross-sectionally regressing covid-19 death rates for countries on various variables that might explain the cross-sectional variation in death rates, including the severity of government restrictions. A number of papers have done so. For one such effort, see pp. 64-71 of the following, which also summarises results from other studies:
This paper concluded that more severe restrictions were associated with higher (rather than lower) death rates, but this was not statistically significant. Thus, consistent with your analysis, the apocalyptic predictions for Sweden were not supported by the data.
Given the attention that Sweden received in the early stages of the pandemic, mostly in the form of criticism of its light-handed approach and predictions of a very high covid-19 death rate, your review usefully audits those predictions. A more detailed analysis would involve cross-sectionally regressing covid-19 death rates for countries on various variables that might explain the cross-sectional variation in death rates, including the severity of government restrictions. A number of papers have done so. For one such effort, see pp. 64-71 of the following, which also summarises results from other studies:
https://trebuchet.public.springernature.app/get_content/82ed6c5a-08d8-4683-aef4-08006a8f3c0f
This paper concluded that more severe restrictions were associated with higher (rather than lower) death rates, but this was not statistically significant. Thus, consistent with your analysis, the apocalyptic predictions for Sweden were not supported by the data.